At the end of 2006, I launched a campaign to contain the spread of a decision theory, called info-gap decision theory, in Australia. Since then I have been engaged in numerous discussions with risk analysts/scholars on topics related to decision-making under severe uncertainty.

One of my earliest findings was that there are wide spread misconceptions among risk analysts about the difficulties associated with the modeling, quantification, and analysis of severe uncertainty, and the role that robustness can play in this framework.

In parallel, I have also discovered how difficult it is, for individuals and organizations alike, to change their views/stance on these issues when confronted with hard facts about such misconceptions. It is indeed amazing how often individual/organizations prefer to extend an error than admit to a mistake.

But above all, I was astonished to find out how easily senior risk analysis can be fooled by robustness. I therefore decided to compile my thoughts on this issue into a book!

So Fooled by Robustness is about our vulnerability to be fooled by robustness against severe uncertainty.

You can read a preview of this exciting book at http://fooled-by-robustness.moshe-online.com.

This blog supports the book in that it contains posts that I compose on topics discussed in the book. My real place is at www.moshe-online.com where you can find plenty of material on these, and other, exciting topics.

A related site, called Viva La Voodoo! is dedicated to … voodoo decision-making.

And never forget:

A Theorem A Day Keeps the Doctor Away!

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